When will the war in Ukraine end?

The first post in my series testing astrology against reality + some thoughts about astrology and how I think it works

Rainbow by Arkhip Kuindzhi

I'm returning to a topic I looked at in one of my first posts here, the war in Ukraine. I feel like this is quite an urgent thing to look at now, so I am rushing to get this post out.

The war is obviously not a topic to be taken lightly, but I don’t feel like this is the place to delve further into it or the discussions around it. Let me just say that I hope there will be peace, that the suffering of the people in Ukraine and in Russia will end and that the aggressor, Russia, won’t be rewarded for the invasion.

So, what am I trying to do here? What difference does it make to something like a war or any of the other horrors happening in the world right now if astrology can predict how they will play out? And if astrology works perfectly does this mean that everything is pre-determined and that we are powerless to influence the future?

The old fate vs free will debate rears its head again.

I thought now would be a good time to explain my own thinking. There are far more well read, spiritual and thoughtful thinkers and writers to turn to, but, for transparency, I want you to know how I see it.

To me astrology is a bit like sheet music. Our lives are like individual pieces of music and we’re a part of this massive orchestra creating a big galactic symphony that is performed and performed and performed without end.

You are one instrument and the astrology is the sheet music, your notes written down on a piece of paper. But notes are not facts, notes are not statements or sentences or even archetypes. They are just an attempt to describe the music, the energy. And that music can be played in many different ways, joyfully, with sadness, angrily. We can choose how we play and we can change the expression of the tune throughout our lives.

But, the notes are there. Sometimes the tempo will be fast, other times slow, sometimes there might be key changes or a new theme could come in and so on.

What I find astrology does speak of, on a personal level, is when the tune changes in some significant way. There will be moments in your life when Things Happen, and astrology is very good at telling you when those things will happen. It’s not always accurate in telling you exactly what will happen, but it can highlight when a significant shift or choice is near.

Another metaphor I find helpful is that astrology marks the moments in a “choose your own adventure” story when you get to decide what happens next. Do you go to the party or not? Do you quit the job you hate? Do you go through with IVF? Do you paint that painting you’ve been avoiding? These moments can shape the rest of the story.

There are many of these “sliding doors” moments in life, big and small. And as a bit of a romantic I also believe that some things, and some people, are meant to be. Even if we miss one opportunity to meet them, life might offer us another chance at a different fork in the road.

What I believe right now, at this stage of my own journey, is that astrology can highlight these pivotal moments, but the outcome and the story that follows depend on the choices we make.

Here’s a example of how it could work:

You might choose to leave or stay in your parental home during a Uranus transit to your IC. If you leave you meet the love of your life during a Pluto transit to your Descendant, and then you have a child during a Saturn transit to your Ascendant. But if you stay in your parental home, perhaps you finally leave during that Pluto transit, and then face a period of rebuilding your sense of self during the Saturn transit.

Mundane Astrology and fate

What does all of this mean for something like mundane astrology?

It means that the story is always evolving and it’s shaped by the people involved. Individuals have agency and so do collectives – nations, cultures, movements, political parties, businesses, religions and so on.

But there is also a different kind of momentum behind global events and behind collectives. It rests on what has come before and on the stories we tell ourselves about the world.

One thing follows on from the next and these patterns and stories that play out throughour time can have truly ancient roots. Which we can find with the help of astrology!

This is also what makes forecasting possible. It takes a lot to make these oil tankers change course and that makes it easier to spot where they are heading (and to watch out for that ice berg!).

So far I’ve found that looking back in time, to when the current astrological cycles we are living through happened previously or how different cycles affect different countries, is where I’ve had the most success in my predictive work. This again speaks of deeper patterns and narratives playing out through our time.

And I think one thing astrology can do really well is to try to identify these patterns and hold them up to the light. This can give us another perspective on our time and a way to make sense of it. Behind most evils there is trauma, generational trauma or some other kind of destruction, poverty, famine, natural disasters. As Margaret Atwood wrote: Damaged people damage people.

I’ve worked with historical cycles in many posts and will continue to do so. But right now, I’m trying to sharpen my tools. To test which methods really work when it comes to prediction.

So, after that massive introduction which I thank you for reading! Onto the first forecast check. The methods I’m going to be testing in this series are:

Intuitive Astrology: My original approach on this Substack. I use Porphyry as the house system and draw heavily from modern psychological and Jungian astrology.

Horary Astrology: The traditional horary method, but with the inclusion of modern planets.

Traditional Astrology: A blend of traditional techniques from a beginner at this style of astrology, rooted in using whole sign houses.

Intuitive

I’m revisiting my earlier predictions on Ukraine made using the intuitive method. This is part of my audit I want to do on here, to evaluate how my forecasts have held up.

On January 23rd, I wrote:

“I think it's possible that negotiations will start in March … This will start with a square to the composite Sun in February 2025 (expect more pressure to reach a deal) and intensify with the conjunction with Saturn at the end of March. Peace negotiations could start around this time. Keep an eye on the middle of April too, as Mars crosses the composite IC again after finishing its retrograde in Cancer. Around the 15th of April could be an important day.”

I also noted that Pluto would conjunct Saturn in Ukraine’s first house starting in January and oppose Chiron in the 7th house, possibly signalling a weakening of international support.

So, what happened?

• Feb 18: US and Russian delegations met in Saudi Arabia for peace talks.

• Feb 28: Zelenskyy met Trump and Vance in Washington. The press conference ended badly with the men disagreeing with each other and shouting.

• Mar 1: Trump announced suspension of US military aid to Ukraine.

• Mar 11: A ceasefire agreement was reached in Saudi Arabia, although Putin didn’t uphold it.

• Apr 19 (!!): Putin declared a 30-hour Easter truce, the first official pause in the fighting since the war began.

• May 1: Ukraine signed a minerals deal with the US, hoping to secure continued support.

• May 19: Trump and Putin had a phone call, ceasefire negotiations were announced shortly after by Trump.

I would say my predictions held up pretty well. But that still leaves us with what comes next.

To continue the intuitive approach I would like to go back through history, which I did a little bit of in this post about Russia, which also looks much further ahead. If you want to have a look at that I’ll direct you to that post for now.

Horary

Here we have the horary chart for the question “When will the war in Ukraine end”. And what an interesting chart with Mars on the Midheaven and Pluto and the Moon next to the IC.

The first thing to note is that the Ascendant is at the very beginning of Scorpio. It could suggest that we are actually at the beginning of a new story.

Let’s first try to find all the different players in this chart.

I think Ukraine is represented by the chart ruler and lord of the first house Mars. He finds himself in the 10th house, next to the Midheaven, and is ruled by the Sun. He is visible and thinking about his status (10th house).

The Sun has just made a conjunction with Uranus (yes, I use modern planets in horary) and sits in the 8th house. The Sun is the War. It is towards the very end of Taurus, meaning it is near the end of its story (i.e. the war is coming to an end soon).

The only aspect the Sun will make before leaving its sign is a sextile to Saturn at the very end of Pisces in the 5th house. Saturn rules the 4th house, which in horary astrology is seen as the house of the “end of the matter”. The war will end soon.

The ruler of the Sun (the war) is Venus in Aries in the 6th house. A weak Venus in the sign of war and in the house of ill health and servants. I think Venus, the ruler of the war, is either Russia or Putin. And Venus is ruled by Mars (Ukraine!) and also moving towards a trine with him.

This is the first aspect Venus will make in this chart.

But, before then we have the fast moving Moon in the 3rd house sextiling Venus (Russia or Putin) and then opposing Mars (Ukraine). The Moon represents the querent, but who is she exactly in this chart? The sign that she rules, Cancer, is actually intercepted in the 9th house. Perhaps the Moon here represents the negotiations. Her ruler is Saturn in the 5th house of children, love affairs and gambling AND of “Diplomats, ambassadors and agents - those who negotiate as an intermediary with the intention of finding agreement between others”, according to Deborah Houlding.

So this speaks of a flurry of negotiations, happening quite quickly as the Moon moves fast. But, I think, the main thing to take from this horary chart is that trine being formed by Venus moving towards Mars. Russia is moving towards Ukraine.

What about timing?

First we need to decide what unit of time to use. I want to go with months. Why? Well please forgive these astrological acrobatics but, the war in Ukraine started almost 39 months ago. If you move the Sun back to where Venus is in this chart you get 40 degrees. I’m not sure if I buy this myself though as that would mean Venus changing signs and you can do all sorts of calculations to get the result you want, what you want is to find the right calculation.

If we go with months that would suggest that we have about two months left to go of the war, for those two degrees left to go before the Sun leaves Taurus. Perhaps there will be a ceasefire in one and a half months when the Sun sextiles Saturn. There is also just a bit more than a degree separating Venus and Mars, so the calculation fits with those two chart points and their movement as well.

That could mean a ceasefire in June and peace in July 2025.

Traditional

On the 19th of June Mars will cross Ukraine’s 9th house Sun in Virgo. Just a couple of days later it will cross Russia’s 2nd house Virgo Moon and trine Russia’s 6th house Sun.

Mars rules Ukraine’s 4th house representing the homeland and the people. It rules Russia’s 9th house of foreigners (among other things). Ukraine’s natal Mars sits in the 9th house, Russia’s in the 5th house.

This Mars transit to Ukraine’s chart could speak of a detailed agreement with a foreign nation affecting the homeland (Virgo 9th house transit, Mars rules 4th). For Russia it could speak of a focus on financial details related to foreign nations (Virgo 2nd house transit, Mars rules 9th).

The Moon also joins Saturn and Neptune at the early degrees of Aries for the first time after both planets have moved into the sign ruled by Mars. It lights up the start of that historic conjunction which is so deeply linked to pivotal moments in Russian history.

This near conjunction will sextile Ukraine’s 2nd house Saturn and widely square Russia’s 6th house Sun in Capricorn. Jupiter and Venus also form significant aspects to Russia’s chart.

I don’t think I need to dig into the symbolism further, it’s the activation of the chart that is interesting. I wonder if this is our date for an agreement or a deal.